DAY TRADER

How To Trade Gold Futures and the Indexes

It’s been a crazy week for stock and futures traders as the market moved up and down like a yo-yo, finally closing down sharply on the week.

Earlier this week I posted a report showing the Volatility Index (VIX) and how it was then trading at an extreme low level which triggered the sharp market corrections. Since that post the VIX has now risen over 30% as traders start selling positions to lock in gains.

Take a quick look at the Volatility Index chart:

Chart of S&P500 Daily Price Action
Since the low in the volatility index a few days ago we have seen the S&P500 drop over 3.4%. This sharp sell off in equities and ES futures has happened in a very short period of time making the overall market oversold when looking at short time frame of the daily chart. With the market oversold and also trading near a support level I expect we could get a weak bounce lasting 1-5 days before rolling over for another wave of selling.

There are several reasons I feel this will happen:
1. Experience from seeing setups/patterns like this across many different indexes and investment vehicles leads me to believe distribution of shares are now starting to flood the market.

2. The market sentiment surveys are still extremely bullish. What does this mean? Well if almost everyone is bullish, then who is left to buy?

3. As the good old saying goes “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News”. With earning season starting I cannot help but think everyone (smart money) will be selling into the good earnings news as dumb money buys into stocks as they meet or beat earnings. This inflow of dumb money is exactly what the big guys need to unload massive amounts of shares at a premium. Also I would like to point out that earning estimates have been very low that past year which I think has been on purpose for the institutions. This makes it very easy for companies to beat estimates each quarter giving the warm cozy feeling to retail investors (us, the small guys)

4. Also Chares Biderman on Bloomberg pointed out the other day that the market looks to be manipulated by the feds as virtually all the gains have been produced after hours in the Futures Market.

Chares Biderman Video
The United States in my opinion is much more corrupt than most people think and I don’t really want to get into this rather large and interesting debate at the moment. But Charles Biderman has some very interesting points which fall in line with my thinking about how much of what is happening is really natural and what is completely manipulated in the past 10 months of rising market prices.

Must Watch 5 Minute Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQyFxBG6dhY

Quick Technical Chart Update on Gold
I thought this chart may be of interest to some of you as it shows two perfect textbook plays on the 4hr gold futures trading chart.

As you can see the first pattern is a reverse head & shoulders pattern. This is bullish and a breakout above the neckline would signal a buy point. Now if we use basic technical analysis with this pattern we can measure the potential move up by looking reverse head and shoulders pattern. You take the low of the upside down head $1075, and go straight up to the neckline at $1117. That is a total of $42. So if we add that $42 to the breakout point above the neckline then we can have a price target of $1117 + $42 = $1159.

As we can see the price of gold over the next couple days rallied to the $1160 level. Trading is not that easy but that is how it works in general. The hard part is knowing how to manage your trade and I scale out of positions as the price matures reaching short term resistance levels and by adjusting my stops accordingly to lock in maximum gains while minimizing downside risk.

A couple days later the same chart formed a regular Head & Shoulders and has since moved its potential measured move. I m not expecting a weak bounce in gold as with the overall stock market, but I am still not sure that the selling is over.

The “Weak’end Trading Conclusion:
In short, the market was turned upside down this week. Those who follow me should be in cash or mostly in cash as this drop was anticipated a few days ago.

Trading during fast moving markets is much tougher for swing traders as pivot points for indexes and commodities tend to happen during the intraday or during futures trading at night. High volatility like this is fantastic for active traders who focus on shorter time frames like the 4hr and 60minute charts, as opposed to trading just the daily chart and entering and exiting positions at the open and close each day.

I continue to watch the market and plan on providing some of these short term setups on the 4 hr chart using both the GLD etf gold fund and the YG Gold futures mini contract.

If you are interested in Trading Gold Futures and other contracts please join my Free Futures Trading Newsletter at my website.

About the Author

Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com. There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method. Since 2001 Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver in both bull and bear markets. Subscribers to his service depend on Chris’ uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return.

Reach Chris at: Chris[at]theGoildAndOilGuy[dot]com

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Trade the Trader : Know Your Competition and Find Your Edge for Profitable Trading $23.31 No Synopsis Available

The Economic Function of Futures Markets $62.11 This book offers an explanation of why commodity processors and dealers use futures markets. It argues that they use futures contracts as part of an implicit method of borrowing and lending commodities, contrary to the accepted view of dealers averse to the fluctuating value of their inventories wanting insurance against price risk. Employing models developed to explain the demand for money, this book demonstrates that riskneutral dealers have sufficient reason to use futures markets. Moreover, the book exposes major internal inconsistencies in the accepted explanation. Rather than insurance markets, the appropriate analogy is the money market, which is the point the book establishes through discussing actual loan markets in commodities. This insight into the function of futures markets is then used to explain how futures prices for different delivery dates express a term structure of commodityspecific interest rates and why futures markets flourish for some types of commodities and not for others. Author: Williams, Jeffrey/ Jeffrey C., Williams Binding Type: Paperback Number of Pages: 272 Publication Date: 1989/10/27 Language: English Dimensions: 8.72 x 5.94 x 0.68 inches

Commodity Futures Market in India $132.24 Over the last few years, the use of commodity derivatives market particularly futures market in India has increased exponentially. In emerging countries like India, the demands for commodities are more compared to other nations. Particularly, three commodities; gold, crude Oil and guar seed are the top ten most trading commodities in India. Now Multi Commodity Exchange in India is the second largest metals trading exchange in the World. With this boom in trading of these three commodities in futures market, there is huge gap in the study of such markets in India. Therefore, this book technically analyzes the commodity futures market in India using the modern econometrics and time series techniques. This wonderfully analyzed the commodity futures market in India, whether commodity futures markets are efficient or not, and how exchanges are fixing the price of commodities. This book more useful to government policy makers, private sector, trading exchanges, traders, investors, researchers and others who are using futures market for various purposes. Author: Jena, Pratap Kumar Binding Type: Paperback Number of Pages: 160 Publication Date: 2010/10/15 Language: English Dimensions: 6.00 x 9.02 x 0.37 inches

2011 Itf Futures Tournaments $66.91 Please note that the content of this book primarily consists of articles available from Wikipedia or other free sources online. The 2011 ITF Futures tournaments are tennis tournaments held by the ITF Mens Circuit. It is 534 regular series tournaments, which allow for players to win career titles and improve their rankings. Futures are held in both singles and doubles, and last only one week. They contain qualifying rounds so that players who are not ranked can gain ATP ranking points. Several hundred Futures events are held each year. As of 2008, the prize fund for each tournament is either US10,000 or US15,000. Futures represent the bottom rung of the professional tennis ladder, below Challenger events. Author: Donatienne Ruby, Christabel Binding Type: Paperback Number of Pages: 64 Publication Date: 2011/05/31 Language: English Dimensions: 9.02 x 5.98 x 0.15 inches

Tools of the Trade Humor Mug by CafePress $15 Look closely — those are tools of the trade spelling out the words

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